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Eleições Gerais de 2009 em Moçambique: Rumo à Nova Ordem Política Nacional?

O povo Moçambicano terá a 28 de Outubro de 2009 mais uma oportunidade de decidir sobre o seu futuro político e socioeconómico para os próximos cinco anos. É mais uma oportunidade ímpar que o povo tem de mudar a liderança do país, suas políticas e a forma de gestão da coisa pública.
As eleições do presente ano são quartas depois do País ter conseguido sair do conflito armado que o devastou e privou Moçambique da prosperidade e desenvolvimento que sempre almejou. Estas eleições vislumbram uma forte concorrência entre os os partidos e grupos de organizações da sociedade civil que queiram ascender à liderança do País. Por outro, estas eleições, tal como vem acontecendo desde 1998, vão ser antecedidas das eleições autárquicas realizadas neste caso em Novembro de 2008.
As eleições autárquicas de 2008 foram marcadas por três eventos fundamentais: ebulição da crise política na Resistência Nacional de Moçambique – União Eleitoral (RENAMO-UE) assinalada pelo afastamento do Presidente do Conselho Municipal da Beira, o Engenheiro Daviz Simango, do partido; o debate aceso na Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (Frelimo) que culminaram com o afastamento do Presidente do Conselho Municipal de Maputo, o Dr. Eneas Comiche e o surgimento de dois partidos políticos como consequência imediata desses acontecimentos: O Movimento Democrático de Moçambique (MDM) liderado pelo actual edil da Beira Daviz Simango e a União dos Democratas de Moçambique (UDM), “a “Frelimo renovada?” presidida por José Viana, ex - presidente da Link, fórum das organizações da sociedade civil no país.
Estes eventos, sobretudo a decadência desamparada da RENAMO-UE e o consequente surgimento do MDM fazem nos pensar na ordem política nacional que advirá depois das eleições de 28 de Outubro próximo.
O que percebemos por ordem política nacional? Com a ordem política nacional pretende-se referir ao equilíbrio nacional de poder, envolvendo as grandes forças políticas, com suas áreas de influência e as disputas políticas, económicas e sociais ao nível nacional. Durante os trinta e quatro anos da sua independência, Moçambique conheceu três ordens políticas: a primeira vigorou entre 1975 a 1994; a segunda de 1994 a 1999; a terceira de 1999 a 2009.
A primeira ordem política nacional surgiu logo após a independência e foi estritamente dominada pela Frente de Libertação de Moçambique (FRELIMO), até então movimento de libertação, que veio a ser transformado em partido político em 1977. Durante esta ordem, a Frelimo era o Partido da vanguarda e ditava todas as directrizes da Nação e não havia pluralismo político. A economia era centralmente planificada. Todo o património nacional estava sob controlo do Estado, à luz da Lei das nacionalizações. Porém, esta ordem foi severamente perturbada pela guerra dos 16 anos entre o governo e a RENAMO.
A primeira metade da década 80 representou um ponto de viragem do país rumo á uma nova ordem política, pois foi nesta época que se assinou os Acordo de Incomati e abriu-se negociações com vista a assinatura de acordos de ajuda económica ao desenvolvimento com as instituições financeiras internacionais com destaque para o Banco Mundial e o Fundo Monetário Internacional. No plano internacional começa a derrocada do Sistema Socialista Soviético (principal aliado de Moçambique) e tem inicio a corrosão do Apartheid (retaguarda da RENAMO). Estava assim aberto o caminho para as negociações políticas entre o Governo e a RENAMO.
A assinatura dos acordos com o Banco Mundial e FMI em 1987 obrigaram o Governo a abandonar completamente a política "socialista", para além de reformas constitucionais profundas. A guerra, porém, só terminou em 1992 com o Acordo Geral de Paz, assinado em Roma a 4 de Outubro, pelo então Presidente da República, Joaquim Chissano e pelo presidente da RENAMO, Afonso Dhlakama, depois de cerca de dois anos de intensas negociações mediadas pela Comunidade de Santo Egídio, com apoio do governo italiano. Em 1994 organizou-se as primeiras eleições gerais. Terminava assim, a primeira ordem constitucional estabelecida em 1975. A segunda ordem política nacional nasceu das primeiras eleições gerais de realizadas em 1994. Estas puseram foram caracterizadas por uma participação massiva de todos os sectores da sociedade moçambicana e colocaram frente a frente os antigos beligerantes (A Frelimo e a Renamo ora transformado em partido político). A Frelimo saiu vitoriosa, tendo conquistado 129 dos 250 assentos na Assembleia da República, contra os 112 da Renamo – O segundo partido mais votado. Os restantes 9 assentos foram ocupados pela União Democrática (UD).
Desta forma nasceu a segunda ordem política nacional tripartidária, dominada pela Frelimo, tendo como oposição forte a Renamo. A segunda ordem política nacional vigorou numa era de reconciliação política e social, desarmamento, desmobilização e reintegração dos ex – combatentes. Por outro lado, foi a fase de construção da paz e recuperação económica, onde a economia do país cresceu 8% em média. Paralelamente, foi uma ordem fortemente marcada pela corrupção escaldante, expressa pelos escândalos financeiros do extinto Banco Comercial de Moçambique (BCI) e o então Banco Popular de Desenvolvimento (BPD). Essa “grande corrupção” foi acompanhada de privatizações maciças e por vezes irresponsáveis, canais de enriquecimento sem justa causa de algumas figuras políticas proeminentes. Na arena internacional, Moçambique recompôs-se o seu nome durante muito tempo manchado pelos trovões de canhões. Esta ordem terminou na ponta final do século XX, com a realização das eleições gerais de 1999.
As segundas eleições gerais decorreram em 1999. Essas eleições vieram mudar a segunda ordem política nacional, pois mudou ligeiramente o ordenamento das forças políticas na Assembleia da República: o partido Frelimo, liderado então liderado ainda por Joaquim Chissano, ganhou tanto as eleições presidenciais, como as legislativas, tendo o presidente conseguido 52,3 por cento de votos e o partido conseguiu aumentar a sua hegemonia parlamentar, ampliando os assentos de 129 para 133. Afonso Dhlakama, da Renamo-União Eleitoral, obteve 47,7 por cento de votos e o seu partido consagrou-se no único partido na oposição com 117 assentos na Assembleia da República. A UD ficou de fora e desapareceu da cena política nacional, militando na sombra como tantos outros partidos sem assento na Assembleia da República. Era o nascimento da terceira ordem política nacional.
A terceira ordem política nacional é marcada pela bipolarização política entre a Frelimo e a Renamo, que vigora até actualidade (2009). É uma ordem divida em dois quinquénios. O primeiro quinquénio desta ordem despoletou com alguns sinais assustadores de violência política pós – eleitoral em contestação dos resultados eleitorais e respectivos órgãos que regularam o processo eleitoral (Pereira, 2002), processo que desaguou em mortes e prisões de apoiantes da Renamo a 5 de Novembro de 2000, na Mocímboa da Praia. Tal como diz o professor de Brito (2008), o “poder [foi] ameaçado”, pois a vitória da Frelimo foi bastante renhida e foi conseguida depois de uma dura resistência contra os rumores de fraude protelados pela Ranamo e dúvidas colocadas por alguns observadores internacionais.
Foi uma ordem de muitas reformas governamentais, com destaque para a reforma do sector público, reforma tributária e tentativas fracassadas da reforma do sistema de justiça nacional. Os escândalos financeiros da ordem política anterior (o rombos do BCI e BPD) saíram ao monte de cima. Cite-se o mediático julgamento do caso “Carlos Cardoso” e abertura do processo “Siba Siba Macuácua”. A economia continuou a crescer a bom ritmo, mas continuou a debater-se com “desequilíbrios fiscais, baixos níveis de desenvolvimento económico e uma fraca liquidez, ainda que em franca melhoria”[i] e lançou-se o processo de reabilitação de diversas infra – estruturas do país.
Dois acontecimentos políticos a nível nacional marcaram esta primeira fase da terceira ordem política nacional: o afastamento da figura número dois da Renamo, Raul Domingos, em consequência do qual surgiu o Partido para Paz e Desenvolvimento (PDD) e alteração profunda mudança no seio do partido dominante, a Frelimo: a saída de Joaquim Chissano da liderança do partido em 2004 e ascensão de Armando Emílio Guebuza como sucessor.
Na arena internacional Moçambique lançou no processo de manutenção de paz e segurança internacionais sob a égide da União Africana e das nações Unidas. A partir deste período, Moçambique juntou-se a outras Nações em missões de apoio à paz em Comores, Timor-Leste, Burundi, República Democrática do Congo e Sudão. Estas participações elevaram o prestígio da República de Moçambique na Região, no Continente e no Mundo.
O primeiro quinquénio desta ordem terminou com a realização das terceiras eleições gerais de 2004. Nestas eleições, a Frelimo reconquistou a sua hegemonia (De Brito, 2008). A Frelimo conseguiu uma vitória relaxada em 2004, tendo conquistado 56% dos votos contra 29,7 % da Renamo. Armando Guebuza conquistou 64% dos votos expressos contra 32% de Afonso Dhlakama.
Tal como ilustra a tabela 3, a Frelimo sobrepôs-se à Renamo, ampliando o número de assentos de 133 em 1999 para 160, contra queda da Renamo dos 117 assentos em 1999 para 90. Este quinquénio da terceira ordem política nacional foi marcado pela mudança de discurso da liderança da Frelimo. O cenário da corrupção gigantesca que caracterizou a ordem anterior é agora vigorosamente condenado sob o lema de combate a corrupção, burocratismo e deixa andar. Há detenções de vulto em conexão escândalos financeiras (caso MINT e Aeroportos de Moçambique). Em adição, em virtude da crise global de alimentos (vide http://angoni.blogspot.com/2009/06/da-geopolitica-da-divida-geopolitica-da.html) e da subida vertiginosa dos combustíveis, decorreram manifestações populares em 5 de Fevereiro de 2008. Por outro lado, foi neste quinquénio que se testemunhou grandes avanços tais como lançamento dos Fundo para o Desenvolvimento de Iniciativas Locais (os 7 milhões), a expansão da energia eléctrica para mais distritos do país como consequência imediata da reversão da Hidroeléctrica de Cahora Bassa a favor de Moçambique, a construção da Ponte sobre o Rio Zambeze em Caia, a reabilitação de diversas vias de acesso, entre outras.
Na espera política, este quinquénio foi essencialmente marcado pela consolidação do poder da Frelimo enquanto partido dominante e a decadência da Renamo enquanto segunda força. O descarrilamento da Renamo começa com o afastamento do Raul Domingos em 2000, facto que culminou a formação por este do Partido para a Paz e Desenvolvimento em 2003. Tendo ganhos cinco autarquias nas eleições de 2003, em 2004 a Renamo perdeu muitos assentos na Assembleia da República. e em Novembro 2008,a Renamo foi, sem surpresas, esmagada nas eleições autárquicas . Estas eleições abriram a cratera do vulcão político que vinha se desenvolvendo desde 2000. Como lava da erupção desse vulcão, morreu a então figura emblemática do partido resistente, Dr.David Aloni Selemane; Daviz Simango actual edil da Beira foi excomungado do partido e, porquanto, concorreu como independente, conquistando uma vitoria retumbante e em 2009 fundou o Movimento Democrático de Moçambique. Com o surgimento deste partido, o edifício da Renamo esta diariamente perdendo as suas pedras angulares, pois muitos dos membros seniores do MDM provêem da Renamo. A Coligação União eleitoral foi dissolvida e ademais, os discursos da Renamo e do seu líder são cada vez menos atraentes. Estes factos agravam-se com as alegações de atentados contra o líder do MDM a 9 de Junho de 2009. E por fim, a Renamo não consegue realizar o seu congresso por falta de fundo, enquanto o MDM já realizou o seu Conselho Nacional e distribuiu viaturas para todas suas delegações provinciais, facto nunca antes conseguido pela Renamo. Perante a queda da Renamo e ascensão do MDM, com se vislumbra o futuro ordenamento político nacional após 28 de Outubro de 2009? Teremos uma nova ordem política nacional?
As eleições que se avinham indicam que o panorama político vai ser alterado, mas não de forma profunda. A Frelimo continuará uma força dominante, só que desta vez tem por frente duas forças políticas na oposição: a Renamo e o MDM. A grande mudança talvez venha ocorrer na própria oposição. O cenário provável é vir a ter uma Renamo completamente fragilizada e até “tercializada”. O MDM tem todo o potencial de ascender à posição de principal força na oposição e a Renamo a segunda força depois deste. A ser assim, poderemos assistir um movimento enorme de membros da Renamo rumo ao MDM.
Um outro cenário é continuar com a Renamo como a principal força na oposição, se o MDM não for muito diferente do que foi o PDD em 2004. O surgimento do PDD criou, tal como cria o MDM, muita expectativa, mas as eleições de 2004 provaram que não era mais do que mais um partido político igual a tantos outros em dezenas que pululam pelo país.
O último cenário é termos uma Assembleia da República somente formada pela Frelimo, a semelhança do que aconteceu nas eleições autárquicas de 2008. Porém, este cenário é menos provável, mas possível, tendo em conta os últimos desenvolvimentos do país e pelo trabalho que o Governo de Moçambique fez ao longo do último quinquénio. Referências AWEPA (1999a), Mozambique Peace Process Bulletin, Issue 23 - 17 December 1999, disponível em http://www.mozambique.mz/awepa/eextra23.htm, acesso a 08/07/2009,Maputo. AWEPA (1999b), Mozambique Peace Process Bulletin, Issue 24 - 28 December, 1999, disponível em http://www.mozambique.mz/awepa/eawep24/eawepa24.htm, acesso a 08/07/2009, Maputo. Pereira, João C.G. Mecanismo Estabelecido pela Sociedade Civil para Monitorar o Processo Eleitoral em Moçambique: Um Aviso Prévio, Outubro de 2002, disponível em http://library.fes.de/pdf-files/bueros/angola/hosting/upd12_02pereira.pdf., acesso a 08/07/2009, Maputo. De Brito , Luis, Uma Nota Sobre Voto, Abstenção e Fraude em Moçambique, Discussion Paper nº 04/2008, Colecção de Discussion Papers do IESE. Disponível em http://www.iese.ac.mz/lib/publication/dp_2008/DP_04_Uma_Nota_Sobre_o_Voto_Abstencao_e_Fraude_em_Mocambique.pdf, acesso a 08/07/2009, Maputo. [i] http://www.undp.org.mz/en/newsroom/news/news_2005/economia_de_mocambique_com_perfil_positivo; De Brito , Luis, Uma Nota Sobre Voto, Abstenção e Fraude em Moçambique, Discussion Paper nº 04/2008, Colecção de Discussion Papers do IESE. Disponível em

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